Canada Posts Highest Population Growth of G7 Countries
In 2019, Canada was the fastest growing country in the G7, with a recorded population growth rate of 1.4%. This was double the per-capita growth of the United States and the UK. Canada also posted over 4x the growth of France & Germany.
Future Projections of the Canadian Population
Canada's population in 2019 was roughly 37.79 million. During the course of 2019, Canada saw a significant uptick in population, this was largely fueled by immigration. Canada saw over 200,000 immigrants move to Canada in 2019, the largest population growth since 1971. If this trend continues Canada's population by 2050 is projected to grow significantly. Based on these projections the Canadian population will be 48.8 million people (medium growth projection) to 56 million people (high growth projection). If this trend continues, Canada could top the United States in Economic Growth this year as immigration being the driving force.
Canadian Population & Apartment Rentals
Over the course of the last 10 years, Canada's population grew by 3.8 million people, while the rental universe grew by 273,000 units. The growth in population and the lack of supply has led to an increased demand for rentals. If the Canadian population continues this trend the major urban centres will lack the infrastructure to support the booming population.
Alberta alone is projected to add 2.3 million people over the next 28 years, reaching 6.6 million by 2046. That equates to an average annual growth rate of 1.5% (82,000 people). CMHC estimates that 80% of people are going to Edmonton and Calgary and the corridor between the two cities which is 64,000 people.
In Calgary, the total rental supply including townhomes is 43,392 as of 2018 (according to CMHC data). In Edmonton, the total rental supply including townhomes is 77,734 as of 2018 (according to CMHC data). Based on a 5% vacancy, that leaves 6,056 vacant units for 64,000 new Albertans.
Alberta Population Growth from 1972 to 2046
Alberta Population Projections & Highlights
- Alberta is projected to add roughly 2.3 million residents over the next 28 years, reaching 6.6 million by 2046; an average annual growth rate of 1.5%.
- The majority of the expected growth will be due to migration, with around 47% coming from international migration and 20% from interprovincial migration. Natural increase is projected to account for the remaining 34% of growth.
- Over the medium term, economic conditions are expected to improve in Alberta. This will help drive strong net interprovincial migration to the province between 2022 and 2026, increasing growth to 1.9% annually during this period.
- Alberta's population is projected to continue aging, where the average age is expected to climb from 38.0 years in 2018 to 41.2 years by 2046.
- In 2018, a newborn girl could expect to live an average of 83.7 years, while a boy could live to 79.2 years. By 2046, life expectancy at birth is projected to rise to 87.1 years for females and 83.6 years for males.
- Between 2018 and 2025, the growth in the school-age population (5 to 17 years) is expected to be particularly strong, increasing at an average annual rate of 2.0%. This is due to stronger migration and a larger cohort moving into this age group during those years.
- While the number of Albertans in working ages (15 to 64 years) is expected to increase, the population share of this cohort is projected to drop from its current level of 68% to 64% by 2046.
- The number of seniors aged 65 and older is expected to more than double from over 551,000 in 2018 to over 1.1 million by 2040. Almost one in five Albertans is projected to be aged 65 and older by 2046.
Resources
1. Alberta Government - 2019-2046 Alberta Population Projections
3. Stats Canada – Results at the Canada level, 2018 to 2068
4. Canadian cities to add millions of new residents, they all can't drive to work – Globe & Mail
5. Immigration Divides U.S. and Canadian Bids for G-7 Growth Crown – Bloomberg