2019 Alberta Population Growth

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The province of Alberta has seen an uptick in population growth. The province posted its second‑quarter population growth for 2019 and it has been the highest the province has seen in the past 5 years. Based on this trend Alberta is on the rebound from recession lows that started back in 2014. The optimism in the province has led to growth which was boosted by high levels of interprovincial migration and immigration.

Alberta saw a population increase of 20,415 people over the quarter which put the provincial population to 4,371,316 as of July 1, 2019. International immigration was the largest contributor to Alberta’s population growth (0.29%). Alberta, Canada has experienced population growth over the last year, which shows the province’s positive trajectory.

When looking at annual growth (year-over-year), Alberta has seen substantial growth in population when compared to other provinces. On July 1st, 2019, Alberta reported a population of 4,371,316 people; from July 2018 to July 2019, Alberta’s population grew by 70,595, which equates to 1.64% of the total population.

 

Province

2018

2019

Change

Alberta

1.34

1.64*

+0.30

British Columbia

1.55

1.39

-0.16

Ontario

1.73

1.72

-0.01

*Source: Province of Alberta, all other number provided by StatsCan

 

Over the course of the year (July 2018 to July 2019), of the 70,595 new Albertans, 43,460 (62%) came from in-migration:

5,542 (8%) came from interprovincial migration

37,918 (54%) came from international migration

27,135 (38%) through natural population increase

 

 

Alberta Population Growth: Upward Trends

Currently, Alberta is experiencing an upward trend in population growth. In 2019, Alberta’s population growth was the highest it has been within the last 5 years. Although Alberta’s population did experience a decrease during a financial recession, it is finally beginning to see a turnaround. When looking at 2019, the population has seen a bounceback that has been driven by increased immigration, natural population increase, as well as smaller (but still notable) increases in regards to non-permanent residents.

 

Alberta Interprovincial Migration

Recently, Alberta has experienced an upward trend in interprovincial migration. People from across the country are relocating to Alberta, with a large portion coming from other prairies provinces like Saskatchewan and Manitoba. One of the driving factors is the affordability of property when compared to markets with high priced property (Vancouver & Toronto).

 

 

 

Alberta Population Growth: Projected Trends

The projected trends for Alberta are that it will increase its population exponentially between now and 2046. Based on current information and trends, it is estimated that by 2046, Alberta will have:

  1. An additional 2.3 million people
  2. A growth rate of 1.5% per year
  3. About 47% of the population growth will be due to international migration
  4. About 33% of the population growth will be due to natural increase
  5. About 20% of the population growth will be due to migration between provinces

 

 

 

 

More specifically, it is expected that the regions in Alberta expected to see the most substantial growth are the urban centres of Calgary and Edmonton (estimated +80% of provincial migration). This is likely due to the fact that since the primary source behind Alberta’s population growth will be international migration, most people who internationally migrate to Alberta tend to take up residence in more urban areas due to the higher accessibility of jobs, residences, accessibility, and amenities.

It is also estimated that by 2046, the number of senior residents living in Alberta will more than double. This will mean that 1 in 5 people living in Alberta in 2046 will be a senior. This projection is on par with the national average.

 

 

 

 

Of course, nothing is set in stone in regards to the future population growth; there are numerous factors that can impact growth, including unforeseen economic and financial factors, sociological factors, international relations, etc. The above projections are based on the current population growth trends being experienced in Alberta. If population growth in Alberta continues to follow the current trends, then it is likely that the projections created using the 2019 Alberta population demographics will be more accurate.

 

Resources

Alberta Population Statistics

Alberta 2nd Quarter 2019 Report

CMHC Alberta Rental Market Report

 

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